Historian who's predicted nearly every election since 1984 reveals his pick for 2024's election

A historian has revealed who he thinks will come out victorious between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

With the 2024 presidential elections now just a month away, American University history professor Allan Lichtman has his moment to shine.

The 77-year-old claims to have accurately predicted all but one election dating all the way back to 1984 and he's since confirmed his pick for this year.

The method

To reveal his prediction, Lichtman took part in a video interview with The New York Times which also shows his efforts to make it into the senior Olympics - the whole video weirdly reminiscent of Elle Woods' pitch to get into Harvard.

The video reflects on his historical success predicting the US presidential elections and how he makes his decisions, Lichtman's 'model' 'ignoring the polls and the pundits' and instead focusing on '13 keys' he developed in 1981 with his friend, geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

The 13 keys are 'big-picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party' and 'only two keys [Incumbent Charisma and Challenger Charisma] have anything to do with the candidates'.

"It's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes before then," Lichtman added.

The method has certainly served Lichtman well, the historian having successfully predicted Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections in 2016 and then Trump losing in 2020 to Joe Biden.

But what do Lichtman's keys - which he brands 'the constant northern star of political prediction' - predict for this year?

The Nostradamus of US politics a.k.a. Allan Lichtman has spoken (PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images)

The prediction

Well, weighing up the keys, Lichtman explains as a result of the Democrats doing 'better than expected in 2022 but still los[ing] House seats' that key is 'false' - false keys 'good' for Trump.

The next key looks at the 'sitting president running for re-election' however, because Biden withdrew, Lichtman says this costs the Democrats - another 'false'.

The third key looks at the White House avoiding a primary contest - 'the Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelming behind Vice President Harris' so the key is 'true' - good for Harris.

The fourth key shows there's no other third party challenge - a 'true' key, fifth focuses on the short-term economy being 'strong' - the key once more true. The sixth looks at the long-term economic growth during Biden's term - the key 'true', seventh takes into consideration the major changes made to national policy - 'true'.

Eighth, there not being 'massive' social protests or unrest, the key once more 'true'.

And nine, the White House not being tainted by proper scandal a.k.a. 'actual corruption that implicates the President himself' - the key 'true'.

The tenth key (the incumbent candidate being 'charismatic') is 'false' but eleventh (the challenger candidate being 'uncharismatic') is 'true' - Lichtman arguing Harris hasn't met the 'standard' as being a 'once-in-a-generational candidate', but taking into consideration Trump's following, while loyal, is 'narrow'.

And so Lichtman resolves: "The Democrats will hold on to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race."

However, he adds: "The outcome is up to you. So get out and vote."

So, what do you think?