Scientists make prediction for ‘Godzilla’ El Niño and reveal how devastating the impact could be
Topics: Weather, Climate Change, Science
Thomas Bamford
Featured Image Credit: Severe Weather Europe
Topics: Weather, Climate Change, Science
Scientists have issued a worrying update on this year’s much-talked-about El Niño, and it’s sounding increasingly serious.
For months, experts have been speculating about how intense the climate event could become, with some even suggesting it might end up being one of the strongest on record.
Now, those concerns have been ramped up another level.
Earlier this week, the United Nations confirmed that a new phase of the natural El Niño weather pattern could begin within weeks, warning it may push global temperatures to dangerous limits as climate change continues to take its toll. And the scary news doesn’t stop there.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has now added to the alarm, with its Climate Prediction Center (CPC) revealing that once it arrives, El Niño conditions are likely to stick around right through to winter.
NOAA are currently forecasting an 82 percent chance that the shift to El Niño conditions will occur between now and July.
According to their latest report, there’s an 82 percent chance the shift to El Niño will happen between now and July, making its arrival feel almost inevitable.
But what’s really got people talking is how strong it could become.
The upcoming weather event has already picked up dramatic nicknames like ‘Godzilla El Niño’ and ‘Super El Niño’, with both terms hinting at the kind of extreme conditions it could bring.
Depending on where you are in the world, that could mean bigger waves across the Pacific, more intense storms and snowfall along the US West Coast, or hotter and drier weather in places like Australia.
Despite the hype, though, scientists are urging people not to jump to conclusions just yet.
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center stressed that while stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of extreme impacts, they don’t guarantee them.
In their own words: “Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”
You can read this as, just because it could be huge doesn’t mean every region will experience worst-case scenarios.
There’s also still significant uncertainty around just how powerful this particular El Niño will become.
Experts say that although confidence in its arrival has grown in recent weeks, predicting its peak strength remains much more difficult.
In fact, no single strength category currently has a probability higher than 37 percent, showing just how unpredictable things still are.
Scientists explain that the most extreme El Niño events in history have one thing in common: strong interaction between the ocean and atmosphere during the summer months.
Whether that key condition develops in 2026 is something researchers are still closely monitoring.